A-Share Semiconductor Sector Surge: Dual Catalysts of CXMT IPO and Wafer Price Hike
Introduction
On July 17, 2026, A-share semiconductor sector staged a spectacular surge. Heavyweights such as SMIC, Cambricon, and Montage Technology soared, driving the entire semiconductor industry chain higher. Among them, wafer foundry leader SMIC (688981.SH) surged 13.74%, hitting a record high with a total market cap exceeding 1.48 trillion yuan; another foundry giant Hua Hong Semiconductor (688347.SH) also rose 11.75%, also hitting a record high. This rally was not accidental but the result of multiple catalysts converging - CXMT officially started its STAR Market IPO process, leading wafer foundries successively raised prices, and AI demand continued to spill over, boosting industry prosperity. This article will deeply analyze the driving logic behind this semiconductor rally and look ahead to the industry chain’s future trend.
I. Semiconductor Sector Broke Out Broadly: All Chains from Design to Equipment Strengthened
Today’s A-share semiconductor sector performance can be described as “blooming in many areas,” from chip design, wafer foundry to equipment material parts, leading stocks in various sub-sectors all surged.
In the chip design segment, Muxi shares rose 16.88%, Moore Threads rose 13.96%, showing the market heat for domestic GPU design companies continues to rise. On the equipment material parts side, there was even a wave of limit-ups: AMEC rose over 11%, Hwatsing rose over 16%, and Eke Optoelectronics, Shanghai Hejing, Youyan Silicon, and Aisen Semiconductor all hit the 20% limit-up. This phenomenon indicates that market funds are pouring into the semiconductor sector comprehensively, not limited to a single link, but forming a systematic bullish view on the entire industry chain.
The strong performance of the semiconductor sector also drove the STAR 50 index significantly higher. Today, the STAR 50 index surged 8.41%, the highest single-day gain since 2026. Behind this data, it reflects that technology growth stocks, with semiconductors at the core, are becoming an important allocation direction for market funds.
II. Catalyst 1: CXMT IPO Initiated – New Cycle of Memory Capacity Expansion Begins
One of the core catalysts for this semiconductor rally is CXMT officially starting its STAR Market IPO process. On July 9, CXMT announced that it would start new stock subscriptions on July 16. According to Omdia data, by shipment volume and sales revenue, CXMT has become China’s largest and the world’s fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer.
From a technical strength perspective, CXMT has achieved mass production from first-generation to fourth-generation process technology platforms, covering product lines from DDR4, LPDDR4X to DDR5, LPDDR5/5X, etc., with core products and process technology reaching internationally advanced levels. The company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan in this IPO, all to be used for 12-inch DRAM production line expansion, DDR5 process upgrade, and HBM forward-looking R&D. Currently, capacity is running at full load, with plans to raise monthly capacity to 350,000 wafers by the end of 2026, and target 500,000 wafers by 2028, while also deploying high-end HBM production lines to fill the gap in domestic computing memory supply.
CXMT’s first-half performance forecast is also bright: expected revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan, up 612.53% to 677.31% year-on-year; net profit attributable to parent expected 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, up 2244.03% to 2544.19% year-on-year. This explosive growth reflects both the high prosperity of the memory industry and confirms CXMT’s technological breakthroughs and market share gains in the DRAM field.
Notably, the two domestic memory giants are simultaneously pushing forward their IPOs. CXMT’s new stock subscription is imminent, and YMTC has also completed its guidance filing. The two focus on DRAM and 3D NAND tracks respectively, planning to raise funds for production line upgrades and technology R&D. CSC Securities pointed out that the listing and expansion of the two leaders will pull the entire semiconductor industry chain from top to bottom, becoming an important catalyst for A-share memory stocks. BOCI also stated that CXMT’s IPO fundraising is expected to start a new round of expansion cycle. Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that driven by AI demand, the global semiconductor industry prosperity continues to rise, and memory industry chain inflation and expansion resonate, CXMT IPO may promote a new cycle of domestic capital expenditure.
From the perspective of industry chain transmission logic, over 70% of capital expenditure in a single memory fab goes to semiconductor equipment. Expansion will release orders in three stages: early-stage etching, thin film, cleaning core equipment will be bid first; mid-stage will drive precision parts demand such as chambers and RF; after production line ramp-up, silicon wafers, electronic specialty gases, and polishing consumables will continue to increase volume. This means that CXMT’s expansion will drive the entire industry chain from equipment to materials, significantly accelerating the verification pace of local supporting manufacturers.
III. Catalyst 2: Wafer Foundry Price Hikes – Pricing Power Shift to Upstream
Another important catalyst is the price hike trend in the global wafer foundry industry. Following TSMC’s footsteps, Samsung Electronics’ foundry division also started to raise prices for some process nodes. According to Chosun Ilbo, Samsung Electronics has increased the supply price for new wafer foundry customers by about 15%, mainly targeting advanced process nodes with high demand and tight capacity, such as 4nm and 5nm, and some automotive 8nm nodes.
Prior to this, TSMC had informed major customers of plans to raise wafer supply prices for 3nm, 5nm and other cutting-edge processes as well as 7nm process by 5% to 10%. UMC also announced selective price hikes in the second half of 2026, with more comprehensive price adjustments discussions with customers in 2027. Notably, Samsung’s approach is not as comprehensive as TSMC’s, but more focused on adjusting prices on specific nodes with concentrated demand.
Korean analysts pointed out that with the increase in AI investment, chip supply shortages persist, and orders for AI semiconductors from global tech giants including NVIDIA have surged, causing advanced process capacity to fall short of demand. In addition, due to increasing pressure to develop next-generation processes such as 2nm and invest in advanced equipment, the long-standing fierce price war in the wafer foundry industry, relying on low prices to compete for customers, is being reshaped, and market bargaining power is gradually shifting to upstream manufacturers.
Some industry insiders believe that current chip pricing is more driven by supply-demand relations and investment costs, with the impact of process advancement on price continuing to weaken, a trend that is deepening. “Entering the AI era, advanced process capacity is in short supply, and pricing power is shifting to upstream suppliers. As long as the AI industry investment cycle continues, the price hike trend centered on advanced processes is likely to persist.”
Huatai Securities previously issued a research report pointing out that AI demand spillover is driving up mature process foundry prices and profitability. To meet rapidly growing AI chip demand, leading semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are, on one hand, increasing their own equipment investment, and on the other hand, actively adjusting supply chain strategies, strengthening cooperation with industry chain companies in mature process foundry and advanced packaging. This trend not only benefits foundries themselves but also creates more opportunities for domestic equipment and material companies to enter.
IV. Industry Chain Reshaping: From Capital Expenditure to Industrial Ecosystem
From a broader perspective, the driving logic of this semiconductor rally is undergoing profound change. In the past few years, the domestic semiconductor industry was more in a catch-up phase, relying on policy and capital to push forward production line construction. Now, local leaders represented by CXMT and SMIC have gradually entered a stage of technological maturity and profitability release. Their expansion plans are no longer simple “domestic substitution,” but commercial expansion based on market demand and technical strength.
CXMT’s first-half net profit attributable to parent reached as high as 50-57 billion yuan, with gross margin and net margin levels continuing to improve, indicating it has achieved sustainable profitability. This fundamental improvement brings stronger performance support and order certainty for industry chain enterprises. At the same time, the wafer foundry price hike further strengthens the profitability and bargaining power of domestic manufacturers, creating greater price space and profit flexibility for upstream equipment and material companies.
From an industrial ecosystem perspective, the IPOs of the two memory giants will form a positive cycle of “capital-capacity-technology-market”: capital market financing supports expansion, expansion drives technological progress and capacity release, technological progress and capacity increase bring market share growth and profitability enhancement, and profit growth provides financial guarantees for the next round of technology R&D and capacity expansion. The establishment of this cycle means that the domestic semiconductor industry is shifting from “policy-driven” to “endogenous momentum-driven.”
V. Conclusion and Outlook
In summary, today’s big rally in A-share semiconductor sector is not short-term sentiment-driven, but the result of multiple factors working together: CXMT IPO, wafer foundry price hikes, and continuously spilling AI demand. CXMT’s IPO fundraising will start a new cycle of memory expansion, benefiting the entire industry chain; the wafer foundry price hike marks a shift in market bargaining power to upstream manufacturers, strengthening the profitability of leading companies.
Looking ahead, as CXMT’s new stock subscription progresses and YMTC’s listing accelerates, the two domestic memory giants will form a “DRAM + 3D NAND” dual-wheel drive pattern, further enhancing China’s voice in the global memory chip market. At the same time, against the backdrop of continuously expanding AI computing demand, areas such as advanced process foundry, high-end memory like HBM, and advanced packaging are expected to benefit continuously.
For investors, the investment logic of the current semiconductor sector has shifted from “concept hype” to “performance realization.” Foundries such as SMIC and Hua Hong benefit from price hike trends and capacity utilization improvement; CXMT and YMTC benefit from memory industry prosperity and IPO expansion; equipment companies like AMEC and Hwatsing benefit from order growth driven by downstream expansion. With industry prosperity on an upward path, the semiconductor industry chain is expected to continue attracting market attention in the coming period.
However, one must also be wary of the risk of a pullback after short-term overheating and the potential impact of global semiconductor cycle fluctuations. In the medium to long term, AI-driven technological change and the long-term trend of domestic semiconductor self-reliance will still provide solid investment logic for the sector.
