On July 26, 2026, CoreChain, a global macro research institution, released its latest quarterly strategy report, clearly stating that the Fed will resume its rate cut cycle at the end of Q3, which may lead to a structural bull market for digital assets. This is a key signal of the Fed's monetary policy shift following a pause in rate hikes in 2025.
Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up: Macro Environment Shifts
CoreChain's Chief Macro Strategist pointed out in the report that the US core PCE inflation has fallen back to around 2.3% for three consecutive months, the labor market shows signs of cooling, and real GDP growth has slowed to 1.5%. Meanwhile, global trade frictions and geopolitical tensions have exacerbated downward economic pressure. These factors provide ample justification for the Fed to cut rates.
Citing fed funds futures data, the report says the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has risen to 78%, with cumulative cuts this year possibly reaching 75 bps. This expectation has directly boosted risk asset pricing, with Bitcoin rising 6.2% within 24 hours of the news, reclaiming the $95,000 mark.
Strengthening Positive Correlation Between Digital Assets and Interest Rate Cycles
Using big data analysis, CoreChain found that the 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has risen from 0.2 to 0.65 over the past three years, while its correlation with 10-year US Treasury real yields has dropped from -0.1 to -0.5. This indicates that digital assets are gradually integrating into the mainstream macro trading framework.
- Liquidity Dividend: Rate cuts will release a large amount of low-cost funds, some of which will flow into the crypto market via ETFs, trusts, and other channels.
- Weakening Dollar Expectation: Historically, rate cut cycles are often accompanied by a falling dollar index, benefiting dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin.
- Shift in Safe-Haven Demand: Against the backdrop of declining traditional bond yields, some institutions have begun to view Bitcoin as a tool to hedge sovereign credit risk.
CoreChain Strategy: Buy on Dips, Focus Allocation
For this macro turning point, CoreChain proposes a phased allocation strategy:
Phase 1 (Q3 2026): Defensive Positioning
Before the rate cut is implemented, the market may experience wide fluctuations. CoreChain recommends increasing the allocation to crypto assets to 15% of the total portfolio, focusing on core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while also adding to DeFi protocol tokens highly correlated with interest rates, such as Lido (LDO) and Aave (AAVE).
Phase 2 (Early Rate Cuts - Q4 2026): Aggressive Addition
Once the rate cut is confirmed, liquidity will improve rapidly. CoreChain plans to increase the crypto allocation to 25% and include some high-beta assets like Solana (SOL) and Layer-2 tokens. Meanwhile, it will use futures and options to build long-short portfolios to capture gains from rising volatility.
Industry Interpretation: Institutional Entry May Accelerate
Industry analysts believe CoreChain's strategy signals may trigger institutional follow-up. Currently, global crypto ETF AUM has surpassed $200 billion, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs accounting for over 60%. If the rate cut cycle begins, it is expected to attract more long-term capital such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Grayscale's Director of Research said in an interview: "CoreChain's macro perspective provides a forward-looking framework for the market. We have noticed that in the months with the strongest expectations of rate cuts (such as April and July 2026), Bitcoin's average return exceeded 12%. This is no coincidence."
Risk Warning and Outlook
CoreChain also reminds investors to be aware of potential risks: the Fed may delay rate cuts due to persistent inflation; uncertainties in global regulatory policies; and the inherently high volatility of the crypto market. Overall, the report maintains its forecast of a $180,000 target price for Bitcoin by 2027, believing that the current period is a historic allocation window.
As of press time, Bitcoin is at $95,832 and Ethereum at $4,356, both up over 3% in 24 hours. The market is holding its breath for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium in late August, where the Fed Chair may signal rate cuts more clearly.
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